Going Forward - The United States and Iran

I subscribe to Stratfor because the site offers an abundance of information on numerous global situations, from economic to military, and to general political viewpoints from various international entities. This week in their Geopolitical Weekly segment, Dr. Friedman opined on the new dialogue between President Obama and Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani. He believes that this is an opening that might well facilitate closer relationships between our two countries. To bolster his narrative, Dr. Friedman gives the political history of Iran; it’s struggles with Iraq, and Iran’s relationship with Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. In a snapshot, he believes that the time is right for Iran and the United States to strengthen our relationship basically because we are at a point where we can do nothing else. The entire article is here.

While I agree with his estimation of the current situation between the United States and Iran, I believe he marginalizes the effect of Islam on the outcome of any lasting and workable diplomatic solution. Iran is a nation under an Islamic theocracy. President Rouhani was hand picked by the mullahs. According to their own estimation the mullahs discussed hundreds of names and settled on Rouhani. These same mullahs have not reversed their thought process just because of an election.

I would offer that the time was optimal for Rouhani to talk with President Obama. After all, Vladimir Putin had just drop-kicked Obama right in the Iranian red lines and gave him a harsh lesson in foreign politics 101. Obama was ready to jump at any chance to have a photo-op or press conference with anyone with an Iranian name.  Rouhani calls collect and Obama gladly accepts the call.  Obama gets to pull his foot out of his mouth and Rouhani gets more time. Charles Krauthammer discusses this at length here.

Our biggest problem with our dealings with the Middle East is that we short-change their dedication to the strict interpretation of Islam. Our money and Obama’s words will not change their religious beliefs.