North Korea

On January 29^th of this year, I blogged on North Korea and cited a Stratfor article that aptly described the North Korean’s policy as ferocious, weak and crazy. An abundance of bluster with little means to carry out the bluster, but still perceived as irrational enough to give it a shot. This technique has allowed the North Koreans to parlay their international characterization as the crazy uncle into payoffs of food, goods, and even some money.

But then on February 12^th, the North Koreans tested another nuclear device and did so against the wishes of the United Nations and the United States and South Korea in particular. Even China had asked the Koreans to abstain from the test. The response to the test was a tightening of restrictions on North Korea. Of special interest is that China was also a signee to the new restrictions.

This is obviously not the result that Kim Jong-un desired. But what do you do if your diplomatic training at your parent’s knee is limited to bluster and threats?  Answer:  You raise the stakes by threatening all-out nuclear war.  And this is where we find ourselves. Tonight, according to news releases from the North Koreans, the North Korean Army has officially informed the United States that they have been cleared to attack the United States. I’m not sure what the standard diplomatic procedure is after being informed of this state of affairs. I doubt a polite “Thank you” is a response in the State Department policy manual.

How real is this threat? I have no idea but there are some factors that need to be carefully weighed before we schedule the next golf outing. Kim Jong-un is the leader of a country that lives on a shoestring. It needs support from China and respect from the United States. Rightly or wrongly North Korea believes the United States is their greatest enemy. Americans have a troubling history of refusing to accept that some countries or terrorist leaders hate out guts. We might remember that when dealing with a country that has a nuclear weapon and not much to lose. We should not lose sight of the fact that the primary goal of Kim Jong-un and his military is to keep Kim Jong-un and the military in power. Nothing else matters to them. If they initiate a military action to stir the pot but believe they can survive the retaliation, then they have lost nothing. Kim Jong-un will have solidified his standing with the military and the military again proves its loyalty to Kim Jong-un. Remember, the crazy uncle is called crazy for a reason.