Diplomacy and North Korea

Diplomatic maneuvers always fuel the imaginative fires of spy novelists. Something is always afoot behind the curtain and whatever you see out in the open is not always indicative of what is offered or desired. This latest two-step with Kim Jong Un is a perfect example of what to believe. Or not.

Lets start with a youthful leader kept in power by a hardened cadre of military officers and political family faithful. Is Un the ruthless leader making his bones by tweaking the diplomatic noses of China, his supposedly wannabe global powerhouse and historic national bodyguard, and the United States, his inherited arch enemy and currently the only real superpower on the global stage? Or is the young leader being maneuvered by his generals, the ever-expanding economic aspirations of his assumed Chinese benefactor, and the craftiness of the cold-blooded Americans into a darkened, back-alley to be slapped around until he falls into obedience in order to keep his country from being crushed by outside forces? As in any good novel, there are ample indications for all of these scenarios.

First of all, anyone who believes the supposition that Kim Jong Un might have the best interests of the North Korean man-on-street needs to be dismissed as musings of a crack addict or an unwitting ex-basketball star. Un has thousands of his people in prisons under conditions that would make Josef Stalin proud. He is the third generation of a ruthless family whose entire effort is to maintain their power by any means. They are supported in this effort by a military that is rewarded by getting the best that this backwater nation has to offer. At this point in time their reward may be in getting the food that is skimmed off the top of what is provided in humanitarian aid from the very countries they detest.

As for the Chinese, while Un has no love for them other than for the protection and strategic resources they provide, the Chinese in turn, offer protection not out of a shared worldview or historic friendship, but out of a need for a buffer state to protect their northeast border.  This is not the first time China has supported the North Koreans in these international tantrums. The issue now is that China has more to lose than ever before. They need to maintain an economic level to literally feed their aging population and this requires jobs and global trade.  Nuclear war can be a real hindrance to global trade so China is not as willing to shoulder up with the young leader as he secures his place in Korea with his military. But to Un, this is how his family does business. Threaten, accuse the United States and South Korea of plotting war, mobilize troops toward the DMZ, and finally demand concessions that will eventually bring back the status quo as a beggar nation with a nuclear device.

China wants North Korea’s buffering capability. China also wants North Korea not to be a problem child for them. They assumed that cutting off some of the Chinese oil would give Un a clearer picture of their new relationship. Un missed that cue and the belligerence got louder. And the United States did not react as planned. Obama would just as soon the North Koreans go away and tried to ignore them while supporting the latest round of sanctions invoked because of the North Korean nuclear test.  The United States finally acted with a movement of troops, a flight of stealth bombers, and a firm warning that the United States would honor commitments to South Korea. Finally.  I’m sure Un was relieved that the United States knew he was there. The Dennis Rodman visit hadn’t done the trick.

But this reaction by the United States perked up the ears of the Chinese who just couldn’t resist so tempting a diplomatic target. With the United States now badgering the Chinese to tighten the leash on their wayward North Korean buffoon, the Chinese finally let Secretary Kerry talk them into some type of action.  All the United States had to do to ensure their help was to reexamine the need for an upgraded American missile defense system in Guam.

So, was Kim Jong Un the puffy-cheeked kid in a bar-fight, or was he just the bait at the behest of the Chinese to bring United States to the bargaining table at a distinct disadvantage? Lets see how quick the North Koreans drop their supposed intentions to reopen a nuclear power plant and start receiving aid from the United States. That should give us our answer.