Turkey Ratchets Up The Tension

Turkey’s military forces just shot down a Russian SU-24 fighter. This is a problem and not just because the rebels on the ground destroyed a search and rescue Russian helicopter and then shot, or more accurately executed, a pilot of the downed Russian aircraft. The problem is that this event brings microscopic scrutiny onto the past failings of the Obama Administration.

This is not just piling on for the sake of piling on. The President of the United States has been the de facto leader of the free world since WWII up until President Obama began to apologize to anyone who would listen. He and his two Secretaries of State have exemplified weakness and uncertainty in the global arena from Ukraine, Iran, Yemen, Libya, the Benghazi affair, and on into the Syrian civil war with the infamous “red line in the sand” comment. All of this has been done with the most aggressive Russian leader since Nikita Khrushchev in Vladimir Putin.

So this is where we are now. Recep Erdogan of Turkey and Putin are adversaries. Erdogan believes that Turkey, with images of the Ottoman Empire still dancing in his dreams, is the natural master of the Middle East. He views Iran as the chief adversary in the area and Russia supports Iran. He is so enamored with the desire of Turkish hegemony that Putin should have expected an almost irrational act from Erdogan. From a realistic point of view, even though Turkish airspace was violated numerous times by Russian aircraft, do you really want to shoot one down? It doesn’t matter if you are right; is it the most logical way to respond? I would think that having Turkish fighter planes escort the errant Russian out of their airspace would suffice and then using the diplomatic avenues to vent your rage would be more prudent.  But what Erdogan did was pull the trigger and now expect NATO to have his back. And by NATO, I specifically mean the United States. Erdogan appears ready to play the NATO Treaty Article V card, which requires NATO to come to the aid of any member country if attacked.

And now we need to seriously question Erdogan’s mental acumen. Does he expect President Obama to actually launch military forces against Russia? Does he know where Obama’s backbone is hidden? Doesn’t he realize President Obama doesn’t even protect American borders? Worse still, Vladimir Putin has what he considers a “good read” on President Obama. He watched the American President waffle when Russia downed the civilian airliner in Ukraine, saw Obama go color blind over red lines in Syria, and grasped at any unbelievable promise by the Iranians during the nuclear negotiations (that word is a joke when discussing our State Department) with Iran. Putin’s first response was to move a guided missile cruiser into range in the Mediterranean Sea, not a favorable sign. Putin will probably not even consider President Obama worthy to mediate the dispute.

Some of the more adult members of NATO such as France and Great Britain need to convince Erdogan that this is not a prudent action and that NATO is not his big stick. Putin will look for a way to deescalate the confrontation, but he has to be able to convince the Russian people that their national pride has not been wounded. This will require some astute maneuvering by all concerned. It will be better if President Obama and Secretary Kerry are kept away from the discussion.