Iran, Israel, and Boredom

For those of you who have read my first novel, The Borisov Delimma (first of all, thank you, and if you have not, then a modicum of shame on you), you might do well to notice that the United States is moving toward a seminal event with the upcoming vote on the Iran nuclear deal that I dealt with in the novel. I use the term “deal” in the most loosely applied vernacular since it appears any semblance of a deal, such as the give and take of opposing viewpoints, was pulverized into abject supplication by the Obama state department. 

John R. Bolton, in an article found in full here, espoused that it is too late for anything positive to take place, that we are over six years behind in trying to cajole our European allies to maintain a required level of sanctions that might do any good at this point. Mr. Bolton also points out that with Obama’s penchant for either disregarding or overriding any legality he dislikes, he doubts the President would honor any negative action by Congress, anyway.

The most interesting aspect of the article is that Mr. Bolton explains what I believe is the correct understanding of the world situation through the eyes of the Iranian mullahs. They don’t care about any agreement, and neither the former sanctions nor the threat of future ones have dissuaded their determination to obtain nuclear weapons capability.

The Israelis however, do view the mullahs through realistic and untainted glasses. All of the talk about the destruction of Israel, which President Obama shrugs away as just talk for the Iranian masses, is totally in line with the goals of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Iran is on the Israeli doorstep, and they will not allow Iran to make the first move.

What if Israel does make the first move? While the strategic damage to the Iranian nuclear sites is debatable, especially for the deep and hardened sites, they could inflict a great deal of damage to any site above ground. This does not include the damage to normal military targets. Against this option Iran, and others, argue that it will be a regional conflagration. I doubt it. Iran has no friends in the region other than Syria which has its hands full at the moment. Iran throws out that Hezbollah will shower Haifa and Tel Aviv with rockets. The threat of using a client terrorist force in a conventional war shows more the weakness of Iran than the power of Hezbollah. Besides, Hezbollah is trying to maintain order over many of its own forces in the Syrian Civil War. This argument also forgets that Hezbollah will never be a friend to Israel, and that many of the other Gulf states, such as Saudi Arabia will silently wish Israel well in any attack. As for any European backlash, the loss of any goodwill for Israel in Europe has been waning over the last few years and the European memory is short. Many have forgotten the Holocaust.

When wishing one well, the old Chinese proverb states, “May you live in interesting times.” I think we need some boredom.