Malaysian Airliner Catastrophe

I’ve watched and read some of the news reports that are currently filling the airwaves regarding the Malaysian airliner that was lost over Ukraine. Notice that I did not drop in the words “shot down” in that first sentence. This may eventually be the case but it seems to me that the media has jumped to the usual suspects mode of reporting at this point.

If the airplane was indeed shot down there are basically three alternatives to choose from; the Russians, the Russian Separatists, or the Ukrainian military. If we are to believe one of these three did the deed, then the next question is for what reason? What would be gained by so gruesome an act?

The Russians would have the most to lose.  Putin is not so brazen to allow this type of activity. He was trained in the old KGB, not Kim Jong-un. The world stage would turn against them and even allow President Obama to actually have the upper hand in the resulting global water boarding.  Therefore, if anything would give Obama an episode of diplomatic competency and a call for even more meaningful sanctions, it cannot be that answer.

What would the Russian Separatists gain?  It would make them appear as thugs or possibly even zombies. They would be painted as a Machiavellian group and the resulting condemnation would force the Russians to back away from any support.  If the Separatists do have the SA-11 (BUK) missile system, then they have the complete system that would include the guidance package that would probably require some Russian on-site help to operate on order to bring down an aircraft at 32,000 feet. Any Russian, and presumably a Separatist missile team commander would not want to shoot a missile at an aircraft that high since it would be no tactical threat to him.

What would the Ukrainian Federation gain? Nothing. It would paint them as incompetent and trigger-happy and dampen any further Western European and United States empathy for them.

If a missile was fired we will find out soon enough. The innocent parties will quickly allow inspectors to check their inventory and account for any missing missiles. This is a major messy and bloody deed that no one will want on their hands.  So now we look at the fourth option—a terrorist bomb. I find it interesting that this is the second Malaysian airliner to go down in a relatively short period of time, the other airliner still missing at sea and with no recognizable wreckage. This is beginning to look like a trend.