The Spy Business and Russia: Nothing As It Seems

This Friday the Russian FSB upped the ante by revealing the name of the CIA Station Chief in Moscow according to the British newspaper, The Telegraph. This is generally considered “bad form” because both Russia and the United States are known to share the names of the top CIA and FSB officials with the embassy of each other’s country.

With the supposedly new working relationship with Russia after the Boston Marathon bombing, why would our relationship seem to deteriorate so quickly? Add to this, the proposed “reset” with Russia by President Obama and this entire mess could be viewed as an anomaly in this new era of hugs and kisses.  Not really.

Russia and the United States are not “best buddies”. We have opposing interests in a number of regions throughout the world, the most notable at the present time being Syria where Russia has just delivered the Yakhont anti-ship missile system to the Syrians. This has also occurred less than a week before the meeting in Washington of the former Russian Security Service chief Nikolai Patrushev. He is acting as the representative of Russian President Vladimir Putin as they discuss the rebuilding of ties between the two countries.

It could be offered that the Russians are just playing hardball and trying to size up President Obama before the upcoming meetings. I believe they already have a good assessment of Obama and are simply determining how far he can be pushed. Look at the facts. They detain a CIA spy and make a public spectacle of the drama. Then they announce the name of the CIA Station Chief after being supplied with the name as a matter of routine.  And contrary to what some in our administration may believe, the Russians have never stopped their spying and covert activities. The British just recently gave up plans to hold an inquest into the death of Alexander Litvinenko who was poisoned on orders of Putin, according to a deathbed statement by Litvinenko. And as recently as 2010, the United States arrested and expelled ten alleged spies. The normal response to the expulsion of an accused spy, whether innocent or not, is to expel one of the diplomats from the other nation.  So not only do we have Russia expelling our spy, they also name the CIA Station Chief. What will Obama and his State Department do? Will they draw the proverbial line in the diplomatic sand and expel some Russian from Washington or New York, or will they sit tight, too concerned with offending the Russians before the upcoming meeting with Patrushev?  If Obama retaliates and expels a Russian FSB agent, then nothing is lost for the Russians, but if Obama does nothing, it becomes apparent that Obama fears he has more to lose and amid all of the recent scandals in his administration, he may feel he has to have something good happen. If this becomes the case, Putin will seize the initiative in this meeting and Obama and the United States will lose more than we gain.