They Caught A Spy?

The Russian FSB claimed today that they had caught a spy who was trying to recruit a Russian counter-terrorism expert.  This expert's region of expertise is the Caucasus, the same area that spawned the two Boston Marathon bombers. Let’s think about this for a moment and see if it passes the basest assumptions of tradecraft expertise by the CIA.

First of all I am not a spy, nor do I consider myself more knowledgeable than the average follower of such activities. But if I were a spy, would I be carrying a bag with wigs, make-up, a knife, and approximately $100,000 worth of Euro notes, and all in an initial attempt of recruitment while in the heart of Russia? I believe the answer is a resounding no. Now, I will be the first to admit that Mr. Fogle, the third secretary for something or other in the embassy may well be on the CIA payroll. More to the point, I would guess that he is, since the American Embassy in Moscow issued no scathing diatribe on the ill treatment of one of their employees. Besides, if Mr. Fogel is with the CIA, he has now been publically outed and will be of no further use to the CIA for some time. After all, you can’t have your CIA man use as his defense that he has been trained too well to be using paraphernalia that is more in tune with a high school stage production. Grabbing a real spy alleviates any argument.

Why would the Russians raise this public spectacle when the relations between Russia and the United States are supposed to be in the “reset” mode, according to the information obtained regarding President Obama’s worldview? Because the Russians are Russians and President Obama is a novice. If there is going to be a “reset”, the Russians want it to be on their terms. They will take any edge they can get. If recent history is our guide, President Obama is too willing to give away the whole enchilada at the initial negotiations and relishes the center stage in these global dances. He will seek to meet Putin more than halfway. President Obama learned his trade as a street organizer. Putin learned his in the FSB.